Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Born in 1988 by two United Nations bodies, with the aim of studying global warming.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
Organized into three working groups:
Working Group I deals with the scientific basis of climate change;
Working Group II deals with the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, adaptation options and their vulnerability;
Working Group III deals with the mitigation of climate change, i.e. the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
The IPCC does not directly engage in research, monitoring or data collection activities. Its reports are prepared under peer review by the world's leading institutions.
The results of the reports are detailed assessments of the state of scientific, technical and socioeconomic knowledge regarding climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for mitigating the speed of these changes. In addition to assessment reports, the IPCC produces special reports on specific topics agreed by member governments, and methodological reports that offer guidance for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories.
To advance its work programme, the IPCC organizes meetings of government representatives, convening plenary sessions of the Panel or Working Groups to approve, adopt and accept reports. During plenary sessions, the IPCC also decides on the work programme, budget and reporting outlines. While it meets regularly to provide scientific and technical indications to the Working Group. To communicate its findings and explain its work, it participates in awareness-raising events organized both by the IPCC itself and by other organisations, including providing conference speakers.
Six assessment reports have been published so far, the last of which will be in 2022. IPCC reports are widely cited in all discussions regarding climate change.
Let's analyze the Sixth Evaluation Report (2021-2022) together [1]
The Sixth IPCC Report (AR6), includes contributions from three working groups and a Summary Report (published in March 2023):
Working Group I: physical-scientific basis (completed in August 2021)
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (completed February 2022)
Working Group III: Climate Change Mitigation (completed April 2022)
1. Working Group I: The physical-scientific basis (WG1)
Endorsed by 195 participating governments, the Summary for Policymakers was published on 9 August 2021. The report highlights that limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C requires immediate and significant in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Working Group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (WG2)
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, was published on 28 February 2022. The report analyzes the impacts of climate change on nature and human activities, addressing issues such as:
Loss of Biodiversity
Migrations
Risks for urban and rural areas
Health
Food safety
Resources (water, energy)
The report highlights that climate impacts are proving more severe than expected, affecting all parts of the world. Approximately 3.3-3.6 billion people are considered "highly vulnerable", with developing countries particularly affected. If emissions continue at the current rate, Africa and other countries could lose between 30% and 50% of their cropland, and a billion people could be at risk of flooding from rising sea levels.
Droughts, floods and heat waves are becoming more frequent and mass extinctions are already underway, from vegetation to corals.
The report identifies 127 negative effects of climate change, some already irreversible.
It highlights the importance of conservation to preserve biodiversity and mitigate the effects of climate change, suggesting that protection of 30-50% of land, freshwater and ocean areas is crucial. He also criticizes the use of technological approaches to carbon dioxide removal, such as solar radiation management and bioenergy, unless they are made responsibly.
The report highlights the limits of adaptation to climate change, noting that some human and natural systems have already reached "soft adaptation limits", including human systems in Australia, small island states, America, Africa and Europe, and some natural systems reach also "hard adaptation boundaries" such as corals, wetlands, rainforests, ecosystems in polar and mountain regions.
Down to the global warming level of 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times, limited freshwater resources pose potential constraints for small island states and regions dependent on glaciers and snowmelt; with 2°C warming, limits are estimated for multiple staple crops in many growing areas, particularly in tropical regions; With 3°C of global warming there are limits on some water management measures for many regions, with higher limits for many parts of Europe.
The report states that even a temporary exceeding of the 1.5°C limit will lead to negative effects on humans and ecosystems
Despite the worrying picture, the report states that it is still possible to limit warming to 1.5°C through a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but action is needed immediately. International cooperation is essential for "climate resilient development", but current warming makes this development difficult, which would become impossible if global temperatures increased by more than 2°C.
Focus Europa
The IPCC has identified four main categories of risk for Europe:
Risks of heat waves on populations and ecosystems: The number of deaths and people exposed to heat stress is expected to double or triple with a temperature increase of 3°C, compared to an increase of 1.5°C.
Risks to agricultural production: The combination of heat and drought will lead to significant losses in agricultural production across much of Europe during the 21st century.
Risks of water scarcity: In Southern Europe, the risk of water scarcity is already high with a global warming of 1.5 °C and becomes very high with an increase of 3 °C. This risk also extends to central and western Europe as temperatures rise.
Risks from increased frequency and intensity of floods: As rainfall changes and sea levels rise, risks to people and infrastructure will increase in many European regions.
The special correspondent US Presidential Climate Envoy John Kerry commented:
“We have seen the increase in climate-fueled extreme events and the damage they leave behind, lives lost and livelihoods ruined. The question at this point is not whether we can avoid the crisis entirely but whether we can avoid the worst consequences."
3. Working Group III: Climate Change Mitigation (WG3)
The Working Group III (WG3) report was launched on 4 April 2022, five years after it defined its framework in 2017. Some observers reported that some countries sought to tone down the report's alarming messages, raising concerns about a possible easing of some conclusions.
WG3 concludes that “net anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since 2010 in all major sectors globally. An increase in emissions can be attributed to urban areas. Reductions in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes, due of the increase in the energy intensity of GDP and the carbon intensity of energy, was lower than the increase in emissions from the global increase in industrial, energy, transport, agriculture and construction activities"
Synthesis Report (March 2023)
I leave you the official document from the Summary Report and on the left its extended version that you can consult for further information.
IPCC AR6 SYR Summary.pdfIPCC AR6 SYR Longer Report.pdfIn-depth study on the United Nations Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol
The assessment reports periodically published by the IPCC are fundamental to the formulation of international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, which implements the provisions of the Convention.
Framework Convention on Climate Change
An international environmental agreement produced by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The agreement was opened for ratification on May 9, 1992 and entered into force on March 21, 1994.
The goal is to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Earth's climate system. It is important to note that the agreement does not impose mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual nations; it is therefore a legally non-binding agreement. However, it included provisions for updates, known as protocols, intended to set specific targets for reducing emissions.
The Convention is based on the growing awareness of climate change and the influence of human activities on ongoing global warming. Among the fundamental principles of the Convention, listed in Article 3, are:
The protection of the climate system and the fight against climate change and its adverse effects.
Consideration of the particular needs and conditions of developing countries, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
The principle that the absence of complete scientific certainty should not be used as a justification for delaying prevention and mitigation measures.
Article 4 describes the obligations of countries party to the convention, such as implementing mitigation measures and adopting national policies to facilitate adaptation to climate change. This includes the sustainable management of "sinks" and "reservoirs" (understood as biomass, forests, oceans and in general marine, terrestrial and coastal ecosystems).
A crucial aspect of the agreement is communication regarding the implementation of the convention, outlined in Article 12. In particular, Annex I countries (industrialised countries) are required to submit regular reports describing the policies and measures taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These countries must also report annually the national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and removals, with estimates obtained using comparable methodologies.
Framework Convention on Climate.pdfFramework Convention on Climate Change
Official document
Kyoto Protocol
Developed as a complement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it represents one of the most significant international legal instruments in the fight against climate change. It is the first global agreement to establish concrete commitments for industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are mainly responsible for global warming.
Adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and after years of negotiations and ratifications, it officially entered into force on 16 February 2005. The agreement marked a milestone in international cooperation to address the challenges posed by climate change, establishing binding emission reduction targets for developed countries, with the aim of decreasing the human impact on the earth's climate.
The distinctive feature of the Kyoto Protocol is the imposition of binding and quantified targets for the limitation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by adhering countries, known as "Parties". This agreement involves 37 industrialized countries and the European Community, which commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% compared to 1990 levels, in the period 2008-2012.
To achieve these objectives, the Kyoto Protocol provides for the adoption of national measures. However, it also introduces so-called "Flexible Mechanisms", which offer additional market-based options to facilitate emissions reductions:
International Emissions Trading (ET): This mechanism allows the trading of emissions credits between industrialized countries. A country that has reduced its emissions beyond its target can sell excess emissions credits to a country that fails to meet its reduction commitments.
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): Allows industrialized countries to implement projects in developing countries that produce environmental benefits in terms of emissions reduction and promote the economic and social development of host countries. These projects generate Emissions Reduction Credits (CERs), which can be used by sponsoring countries to meet part of their reduction targets.
Joint Implementation (JI): Allows industrialized countries to implement emission reduction projects in other countries of the same group. Credits from these projects (Emissions Reduction Units, ERUs) can be used jointly by the host country and the promoting country to meet their emissions reduction targets.
kyoto protocol.pdfKyoto Protocol
Official document
Bibliography
[1] IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 35-115, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
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